Mutual Fund Wealth Simulator

Samith Radhakrishnan

SVP Analytics Head

LinkedIn Profile

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From previous simple tool kept going - built a portfolio simulator for Indian mutual funds. From scratch. Here's the full architecture.

Start with data. 890 schemes. 38 categories.

Returns across 9 timeframes (1W → 10Y), AUM, ratings. Large Cap, Mid Cap, Debt, Hybrid, Index — the full universe.

Then score every fund on four dimensions:

→ Return Score — 5Y CAGR.

Falls back to 3Y.

Long-term is the only honest signal.

→ Volatility Score — std deviation.

Lower wins.

→ Sharpe Ratio — return per unit of risk.

The only way to compare across buckets.

→ Consistency Score — stability from 1W to 10Y.

14% every year beats 20-4-18%.

One Composite Score.

No star ratings.

No distributor bias.

Clean the universe ruthlessly.

Dropped sectoral funds (timing risk dressed as alpha),

Gold/silver ETFs (inflating passive returns to 32%),

FoFs, and lock-in products.

What remained: a rankable, honest universe. Top N per sub-category — configurable at 3, 5, 7, or 10.

Map into four asset class buckets:

Asset ClassRole Return Profile

Equity --- Growth ---- ~17-19%

Hybrid ---- Cushion----- ~12%

Debt ------ Stability----- ~8%

Passive ----Low-cost-- ~13%

Four risk profiles — Conservative to Very Aggressive — define the mix.

Equity weight runs from 20% to 75%.

Then run 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

Each path: monthly returns drawn from Normal(μ/12, σ/√12), compounded with SIP additions. 10,000 futures. Every month. Every year of your horizon.

From those paths, extract:

→ P10 — Worst case (bottom 10%) → P50 — Median, most likely outcome → P90 — Best case (top 10%) → XIRR on the median path → FIRE year — first year your corpus crosses your target

The full architecture in one flow:

890 funds → Scoring → Composite Score → Top N per sub-category

→ Risk Profile → Asset class weights

→ Blended return + volatility

→ Monte Carlo (10,000 paths × monthly SIP)

→ P10 / P50 / P90 + FIRE year

→ Streamlit Dashboard → Live

Most financial tools show you the past.

This one simulates 10,000 versions of your future — and tells you which one is most likely.

→ Try MF Wealth Lab live:- https://lnkd.in/gN4jnDdF

Built for anyone who wants to think clearly about wealth, not just track it.