Investments – Lots of options available but – जाएँ तो जाएँ कहाँ
- Vikas Miglani
- 2 days ago
- 5 min read
Vikas Miglani
Market professional, fiction writer and poet
Full article can be accessed on my blog at below link:
An eventful year 2025 had come to an end with President Donald Trump of the United States hogging the limelight, in the comeback year of his presidency.
A more lethal and vindictive, he started off with an aim to end the Russia Ukraine war and had successfully negotiated a short living peace deal between Israel and Hamas but on the economic front being on the loggerheads with his Central Bank chief had to negotiate a fledgling economy with a USD 38 trln deficit
One remedy he applied universally to all ailments was the tariffs, levying it at his own whims and fancies and continuing to use it as a tool of threat.
The world had been turning aligned to his whims and fancies hoping for a positive 2026 but on the first weekend he not only got lifted the Venezuelan President out of his bed in early morning but also cleared his territorial ambitions setting up eye on Greenland and also issuing a threat to Canada to join the United States as 51st province
Trump hoped to have a backing from the Euro zone but the idea of annexing Greenland from Denmark was strongly resisted, exposing the fault lines between the United States and Europe, in a way pushing back Donald Trump a bit, despite his effort to arm twist Europe with tariff threats
Markets across the globe have gone in for a tailspin leaving the world with a thought, what next and how to resist the antics of the POTUS for next 3 years.
The dollar has started to wobble, the US treasuries seeing a sell off from global pension funds and sovereign states and though the capital markets are holding firm for now, there is an underlying worry of sorts
Gold has rallied, and is at the cusp of USD 5k with the big question being on the future of the yellow metal. A Bank of America report suggests that by mid year 2026, USD 6k is possible but the way it has rallied from USD 3500 to USD 5k mark there is a need for a serious correction, since the element of speculation has set in, in a big way
Silver has far outpaced the gold in a big way having almost doubled in last 2 months to scale the USD 100 mark. There are two factors driving the silver, one the potential industrial demand and two some bit of global uncertainty being priced in, though Silver is not the reserve currency of the world
Given the silver’s volatile history, the current up move is always under the shadow of doubts that it can retrace anytime and hence calls for caution.
Having said that, we are in a changed scenario from 1980s or 2010 and hence the retracement may not be as deep as it was in the past
Given the stellar run in both the metals there is a FOMO factor that is adding to the element of speculation as well and leaving us with the question.
Is it the right time to invest in Gold and Silver.
I think given the heightened global uncertainty gradual build up in Gold in a systematic manner can definitely be considered, given that Gold always has value, can be considered.
Let me reiterate correction is bound to come, whether it comes in at USD 5k or 5500 or 6k is anybody’s guess
In Silver I feel some profit can be taken off the table and if you’ve missed out the silver rally in last 2 years consider yourself unlucky but avoid getting in at this level. My own sense is that a 15 – 20% correction in silver is possible and that can be a good entry point
What about Equities (in India) – It’s been 16 months now that we are still trading almost 1k points below on nifty, though in between we managed to break the previous high.
The market PE is down below 22 and the economic growth is reasonably strong, though we have a concern on FII flows but DIIs are backing up in full.
With the time correction having taken place, I carry the feeling that the coming year can be the year of equities, with the only exception being that the world heads into a war
The possible portfolio combination – there isn’t a definite answer to what should be the composition as it is a function of individual financial goals, age and income factors but I must say that there has to be a mix of all asset classes.
Have some bit of deposits to follow a discipline, and I think at this point in time one can have an equity heavy portfolio with a mix of large, mid and small cap stocks.
Had it been a year before one would have refrained from recommending the mid and small caps but looks like there is more than enough correction and one can definitely look at them.
Mid and small cap is generally a function of understanding the business and if you find it difficult to do so, no harm in going via the mutual fund route
A mix of deposits, equity (both large and mid & small caps) and Gold can be recommended at this point in time, with the caution being that if there is a war like scenario or tension escalates the equities may fall further and gold may rise.
No harm in having a fine mix of gold and equities to hedge one another. Better to be equity heavy though
What is the right approach – long term investment or short term investment – this has a mixed answer again.
If you are investing for long there is always a cost rationalisation in terms of transaction expenses and tax incidence with value creation of course, but if you are in some volatile instruments, a slight fall can take the profit away from you.
So follow a balanced approach – core portfolio that is more than 80% of your total investment has to be long term in nature while on 20% you may play around to derive the satisfaction of being a trader
Caution: All investment are subject to market risk. I am not an investment advisor and this write up is being shared just to highlight the prevailing trend in Gold and Silver with a generic perspective. The need, requirement and objective varies from individual to individual and hence it is a must that one carries out their own due diligence in consultation with their investment advisor. I’ve zero liability for any investment decision that is taken up basis this write up as this is just a product overview carried out as an academic exercise
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